Azerbaijan – Norway

Azerbaijan hosts Norway in Baku, match counting for the fourth round of the Euro 2016 qualifying Group H.

Azerbaijan played really great vs. Italy last month and almost got away with a draw, but Chiellini gave Italy a 2-1 win … great football from Azerbaijan, solid defensive efforts and also some good counterattacks. Unfortunately Azerbaijan followed that with a 6-0 loss in Croatia … previously lost 2-1 with Bulgaria, so they have 0 points in 3 matches. Also overall Azerbaijan lost 4 consecutive games with a 2-14 goal difference. An encouraging statistics for Azerbaijan is that they lost only 1 from the last 7 home games (vs Bulgaria) … but they met no quality opponents except for Russia (1-1), and Russia back then had no motivation. After the Croatia disaster, the head coach Berti Vogts has stepped down and they have an interim coach now.



Norway is trying to rebuild after some poor results in last years … they have some interesting young players and people have expectations from them. So far Norway performed good in the Euro 2016 qualifying … lost first game 0-2 to Italy, but won 3-0 in Malta and 2-1 vs. Bulgaria. Last match was a defeat to Estonia 4 days ago but it was only a preparation friendly. Norway can play good offensive football but can have problems in defense … they are a team in forming but have a decent chance to reach Euro 2016 and a win today would be golden.

I like the chances for this match to see some goals … even if Norway will miss regular striker Joshua King (Blackburn). Azerbaijan allowed 14 goals in the last 4 matches so they are not exactly too strong at the back, making big errors in every match. Norway as I said plays well in offense with some talented and skilfull players, but we saw vs. Italy or vs. Bulgaria that their defense can look really bad at points. I see Norway getting a win but it should be very tight and they will probably let a goal in in the process My tip will be over 2,25 goals. Correct score prediction: Azerbaijan – Norway 1-2.

Pick: over 2,25 goals
Odds: 2.24

Basel – Ludogorets

FC Basel hosts Ludogorets Razgrad in a crucial match of the Champions League Group B 4th round. Real Madrid will win the group, but Liverpool, Basel and Ludogorets all have 3 points each. Two weeks ago Ludogorets won 1-0 vs. Basel in the 91st minute … but played more than 70 minutes with an extra man.

Basel was so close to get a result in Bulgaria despite having a man sent off in the 18th minute … but lost in injury time and now badly need a win if they want a chance to reach the 2nd place in the group. Basel looked pretty good in last two games, 3-1 vs Wohlen and 2-0 vs Grasshoppers in Switzerland. For today FC Basel will play without Streller, Die and Ivanov. Walter Samuel is questionable.

Bet on Basel – Ludogorets with the best under / over Champions League odds at William Hill.

Ludogorets in very good form with 4 consecutive wins in all competition … and in the last three they kept a clean sheet. Their Champions League performance was also remarkable … close 1-2 defeats vs. Liverpool (undeserved) and vs. Real Madrid, than the 1-0 win against Basel. Ludogorets has been lucky all season to be free of injuries and again have all players healthy, and only missing player is Minev, suspended.

I think each team knows exactly how massive this game is and nobody will take risks. Basel needs to win but more importantly they can’t lose … Ludogorets will be content with a draw. Visitors have the ability to defend well in numbers, we saw that vs Liverpool and Real, they also have three clean sheets in a row. When you look that Basel misses key attacking players like Streller, their mission to score will be made that much harder. I see a rugged game, heavy defending … Ludogoerts will defend and Basel with their experience know they can’t go all out attack and risk counterattacks. Even if somebody goes 1-0 up, the team that is down will try to get back into the game with caution. So my tip will be under 2,5 goals on this match. You can see that the odds for this bet are dropping and I don’t think we will see anything more than 1.85 come match time. Correct score prediction: FC Basel – Ludogorets Razgrad 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.91

Valencia – Elche

Valencia hosts Elche in the ninth round of the Spanish La Liga / Primera Division.

Valencia after takeover from billionaire Peter Lim started playing like crazy this season, real good football and great offensive prowess (even if there were no big transfers). Alcacer and the rest of the guys reached as high as first place but what happened last round was an absolute shock … not only it was the first defeat of the season for Valencia … it was a 0-3 disaster vs. the lowly Deportivo La Coruna, right after Valencia beat Atletico Madrid 3-1. Ok it was a harsh score in La Coruna but 0-3 is 0-3. For today Valencia has 2 absences: Feghouli and Gil. Also Negredo and Vaquero are doubts.


Elche on the 18th place, very bad football played lately … 4 losses and 1 draw in last five games and the draw was vs. Almeria. Also Elche lost 3 of the 4 games by at least 1 goal handicap. Last round Elche lost 0-2 at home to Sevilla, I rate Sevilla as similar team to Valencia but a little bit worse. For this game vs. Valencia Elche is pretty free from injuries, but Aaron will not play and Jimenez will be assessed close to game time. Elche played a little bit better away from home this year than at home.

For sure Valencia will be very concentrated to recover after the humiliation against Deportivo La Coruna and I am sure they will get back to winning ways. If you looked at how Valencia played this season and considering the defeat was unlucky, I think it is safe to consider it an accident. Elche is in very poor form at the moment, they are losing games big and my tip will be a Valencia win with a 1,5 goal handicap. Valencia won all home games this season and all 4 wins were with a 1 goal handicap (12-2 goal difference). With extra motivation today, Valencia has every chance to get another handicap win vs. an inferior and out of form opposition. I must say I trust this bet a lot and I am surprised / enchanted by the odds. Time will tell, but my correct score prediction is: Valencia – Elche 3-0. High stakes for me.

Pick: Valencia (-1,5)
Odds: 2.22
Pick: PSG to win to nil
Odds: 2.10

Fulham – Charlton

A rejuvenated Fulham side will take on playoff hopefuls Charlton Athletic at Craven Cottage in what should be a close game.

Fulham had a horrific start to the season, absolutely unbelievable considering the talent they have in the squad, but after the sacking of Felix Magath the team started to play football again. Fulham has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 matches and we can add a 2-1 League Cup win over Doncaster as well. Bryan Ruiz is back in the squad and banging in the goals, so the hosts will try to keep up the good run today.

Charlton`s current 7th place standings is a little bit surprising to me, we`re talking about a team that barely escaped relegation last season. However, the visitors made some great signings in the off-season, real quality players, and the results are not random. Charlton is the type of team that is very hard to break down and to defeat, proof of that being the fact that they have just 1 loss! However, they lack killer instinct and are finding it hard to win games themselves – 7 draws so far for Charlton in 13 matches.

Bet on Fulham – Charlton Athletic with the best Championship odds offered by Pinnacle.

Team news & lineups:

Fulham might be without Hoogland, while Charlton will miss Buyens and possibly top scorer Vetokele. Otherwise both teams are healthy and ready to go.

Fulham: Bettinelli – Zverotic, Bodurov, Burn, Stafylidi -, Rodallega, Hyndman, Christensen, Williams, Ruiz – McCormack

Charlton Athletic: Henderson – Wilson, Ben Haim, Bikey, Wiggins – Bulot, Solly, Jackson, Cousins Moussa, – Vetokele (Tucudean)

This analysis is as straightforward as it gets for me. Though Fulham is heavily favored and the odds on them are dropping, I can see a draw happening. Charlton is so hard to beat this season and Fulham, though improving, is far from playing top football, they still need more time to fully recover. I am a little bit concerned that Fulham needs a win and must go for it, but of course this pick can`t be without some risk. Charlton`s stat line analysis could not be more relevant, 7 draws in 13 games and we still get odds of almost 4.00 for them to finish tied. My tip is the draw. Prediction: Fulham – Charlton Athletic 1-1.

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.79

Celtic - Astra

The Hoops have claimed four points from their opening two Europa League games and our tipster is backing the home side to pick up maximum points against Astra on Thursday evening

Celtic have made a solid start to their Europa League campaign and Ronny Deila's men will be confident of claiming all three points when they take on Romanian minnows Astra in Glasgow on Thursday night.

The Hoops have often struggled to produce their best form thus far this term but were impressive in a 5-0 demolition of Ross County at the weekend and Deila will be hoping for more of the same from his side on Thursday evening.



Celtic are warm favourites to follow up on a 1-0 home win over Dinamo Zagreb earlier this month by taking all three points against the Romanians, with William Hill offering 4/6 (1.67) for a home win, while the same firm make the visitors a 9/2 (5.50) chance in Glasgow. The draw is chalked up at 13/5 (3.60) with William Hill ahead of Thursday's tussle.

Kris Commons scored the only goal of the game when Celtic defeated Dinamo Zagreb and the 31-year-old midfielder can be backed at 4/1 (5.0) to break the deadlock on Thursday.

Better value, though, may be found in backing Commons to score at any time in a win for the Hoops at 5/2 (3.50) - a special "headline offer" from William Hill.

Ronny Deila's men have won four of their last five matches in all competitions - and led by half-time in all of those victories.



An early goal against Astra may well set the Scots on the road to victory on Thursday and the 7/4 (2.75) quote from William Hill for the Hoops to lead at both half-time and full-time certainly appears to be generous here.

William Hill offer just 3/4 (1.75) that Ronny Deila's men find the net during the first half, while the same firm offer a tempting 17/20 (1.85) that the home side score two or more goals against Astra on Thursday.

However, given Celtic's record of coming out of the blocks quickly in recent weeks, the 7/4 (2.75) quote from William Hill for the Hoops to lead at both half-time and full-time is too big to ignore and should be snapped up accordingly by punters ahead of Thursday's clash.

BEST BET
Celtic to lead at half-time and full-time at 7/4 (2.75)

Ludogorets – Basel

Ludogorets – Basel



Ludogorets Razgrad hosts FC Basel in the 3rd round of the Champions League Group B. It is a very important event that could decide the team which finishes third … but also if Basel wins, the Swiss team will have a huge chance to finish second. Ludogorets has zero points, Basel has 3 points.

Champions League newcomers Ludogorets are a pleasant surprise so far even if they lost both matches … they lost 2-1 vs. Liverpool and vs. Real both times via late goals and especially vs. Liverpool they deserved a draw. Hosts have impressed thanks to determination, fighting spirit and a good discipline and organization. Last match for Ludogorets was a 3-1 win vs. Haskovo on Friday but they are not having the best period in the league (won only 6 of 12 games). Bulgarians will be missing Barthe today and Zlatinsky will see a late fitness test.

Bet on Ludogorets Razgrad – FC Basel with the best Champions League asian handicap odds at Sbobet.

Unfortunately Basel has to deal with some injury problems in front of this important game … Ivanov, Safari and Dias will be missing … Samuel, Streller and Schar are questionable. But this is not something new for them and they dealt with the problems very well this season. Basel lost the first game vs. Real easily but won 1-0 vs. Liverpool in a great performance, not giving them a chance. Basel also had a great day in the last game Saturday, a 1-0 win in a very hard away game at Young Boys.

Ludogorets played well so far but this looks like one of those situations that end up anti-climatic … everybody expects Ludogorets to get at least  a point after their good performances, but they meet an experienced team that has a huge motivation to win. It doesn’t matter how good Ludogorets played with Liverpool and Real, this is a different game and they again meet a better team. Basel knows how to deal with these kind of matches and I bet they can win this game with just a little bit of luck. Injuries are a little concern, but team news are not so bad, Basel dealt with much more missing players recently … and Streller, Schar and Samuel are expected to start even if they are doubtful. Last season Basel destroyed Ludogorets in the Champions League playoffs (4-2, 2-0) and Ludogorets did not improve so much to be considered Basel’s equal as the odds suggest … my tip will be Basel to win +0 asian handicap (draw no bet). Betting on experience here … and I am very confident that we will not lose the pick … at worst a void bet. Correct score prediction: Ludogorets Razgrad – FC Basel 1-2.

Pick: FC Basel (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.91

Roma v Bayern Munich Prediction 21st October 2014

Roma v Bayern Munich Prediction 21st October 2014

20th October 2014 / lee

Roma v Bayern Munich Champions League, 21st October

Manchester City fans will have an eye on this one out in Rome. A heavyweight clash in the Champions League on Tuesday and City will probably be hoping that Pep Guardiola’s men produce a victory. Bayern Munich are favourites for the match, and at some good value too at Even money, but Roma are a dogged side who don’t give too much away. Roma go a 5/2 underdogs with the draw at 11/4.

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Roma v Bayern Munich Betting Tips

Both would be happy enough with a draw probably, as it would keep them on track for the round of sixteen. That won’t help Man City though. The last time they met in Rome at the Stadio Olimpico, there was a classic. Bayern went 2-0 up in eh game, but then a rousing comeback from the home side saw the Italians win 3-2. That was in the 2010/11 group stage. Roma posted a 5-1 home win over CSKA Moscow to start this campaign with, before Francesco Totti rescued a point for them at Manchester City. They hold a pretty decent W7 D1 L3 home record against sides from the Bundesliga, and with their tight defence and Serie A form (winning six of seven) then they could give the Bavarians a tough night.

You would expect a result to happen, because Roma have drawn just one of their last 15 matches against German opposition, taking seven wins.  The Giallorossi have won five out of five at home in all competitions this season, so aren’t going to be a pushover, even though they go as underdogs on home soil. They certainly have a very solid defence and it is something which could force this game to go under 2.5 goals. It is likely to be tight and Roma can dig in, perhaps also adding a bit of value to a draw/Bayern Munich half time/full time bet. But can they get enough of the ball to do any damage to the Germans?

No side has produced more passes and no side has produced more touches in the opposition box than Bayern Munich have done over the opening two rounds of this season’s Champions League. They enjoy possession. They are currently on an eleven match winning streak since they lost to Borussia Dortmund in the German Super Cup back in August. That’s form for you. Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller are the obvious marks in the First Goalscorer market for this one, but they may have to be patient. They will knock the ball around and it may not be till the second half that they really start to create some chances. Bayern have won their last three Champions League games against Italian teams, keeping a clean sheet in the last two and their overall away record against Serie A opposition reads W6 D3 L9.

Who will win – Roma v Bayern Munich Predictions

Bayern Munich’s two wins in the group have both been 1-0 victories so far. They have firepower, but they also know how to just do enough. Would expect this game to be tight in Rome, but Bayern have more than enough to take the win. They are screaming value at a -1 Asian Handicap which should be jumped all over. Patience will be the key for them, but they are in form and have more match winners available than Roma and a 1-0 Correct Score on the away side looks tempting too.