Azerbaijan – Norway

Azerbaijan hosts Norway in Baku, match counting for the fourth round of the Euro 2016 qualifying Group H.

Azerbaijan played really great vs. Italy last month and almost got away with a draw, but Chiellini gave Italy a 2-1 win … great football from Azerbaijan, solid defensive efforts and also some good counterattacks. Unfortunately Azerbaijan followed that with a 6-0 loss in Croatia … previously lost 2-1 with Bulgaria, so they have 0 points in 3 matches. Also overall Azerbaijan lost 4 consecutive games with a 2-14 goal difference. An encouraging statistics for Azerbaijan is that they lost only 1 from the last 7 home games (vs Bulgaria) … but they met no quality opponents except for Russia (1-1), and Russia back then had no motivation. After the Croatia disaster, the head coach Berti Vogts has stepped down and they have an interim coach now.



Norway is trying to rebuild after some poor results in last years … they have some interesting young players and people have expectations from them. So far Norway performed good in the Euro 2016 qualifying … lost first game 0-2 to Italy, but won 3-0 in Malta and 2-1 vs. Bulgaria. Last match was a defeat to Estonia 4 days ago but it was only a preparation friendly. Norway can play good offensive football but can have problems in defense … they are a team in forming but have a decent chance to reach Euro 2016 and a win today would be golden.

I like the chances for this match to see some goals … even if Norway will miss regular striker Joshua King (Blackburn). Azerbaijan allowed 14 goals in the last 4 matches so they are not exactly too strong at the back, making big errors in every match. Norway as I said plays well in offense with some talented and skilfull players, but we saw vs. Italy or vs. Bulgaria that their defense can look really bad at points. I see Norway getting a win but it should be very tight and they will probably let a goal in in the process My tip will be over 2,25 goals. Correct score prediction: Azerbaijan – Norway 1-2.

Pick: over 2,25 goals
Odds: 2.24

Basel – Ludogorets

FC Basel hosts Ludogorets Razgrad in a crucial match of the Champions League Group B 4th round. Real Madrid will win the group, but Liverpool, Basel and Ludogorets all have 3 points each. Two weeks ago Ludogorets won 1-0 vs. Basel in the 91st minute … but played more than 70 minutes with an extra man.

Basel was so close to get a result in Bulgaria despite having a man sent off in the 18th minute … but lost in injury time and now badly need a win if they want a chance to reach the 2nd place in the group. Basel looked pretty good in last two games, 3-1 vs Wohlen and 2-0 vs Grasshoppers in Switzerland. For today FC Basel will play without Streller, Die and Ivanov. Walter Samuel is questionable.

Bet on Basel – Ludogorets with the best under / over Champions League odds at William Hill.

Ludogorets in very good form with 4 consecutive wins in all competition … and in the last three they kept a clean sheet. Their Champions League performance was also remarkable … close 1-2 defeats vs. Liverpool (undeserved) and vs. Real Madrid, than the 1-0 win against Basel. Ludogorets has been lucky all season to be free of injuries and again have all players healthy, and only missing player is Minev, suspended.

I think each team knows exactly how massive this game is and nobody will take risks. Basel needs to win but more importantly they can’t lose … Ludogorets will be content with a draw. Visitors have the ability to defend well in numbers, we saw that vs Liverpool and Real, they also have three clean sheets in a row. When you look that Basel misses key attacking players like Streller, their mission to score will be made that much harder. I see a rugged game, heavy defending … Ludogoerts will defend and Basel with their experience know they can’t go all out attack and risk counterattacks. Even if somebody goes 1-0 up, the team that is down will try to get back into the game with caution. So my tip will be under 2,5 goals on this match. You can see that the odds for this bet are dropping and I don’t think we will see anything more than 1.85 come match time. Correct score prediction: FC Basel – Ludogorets Razgrad 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.91