England vs Lithuania

England vs. Lithuania / Qualifiers for EURO – After a few friendly, finally we have a few qualifying matches for EURO 2016, and we will start the analyse of the fifth round with one quite unequal duel in Group E, because the currently leading England meets the third Lithuania at London’s Wembley, which already at this stage of the competition has a large six points behind “Gordon Albion”. Let us add that this is their first mutual duel in history. Begins: 27.03.2015 – 20:45 CET
England

But even though they do not know each other enough, it is quite clear that the English have the role of big favourite in this match, especially while since they are in a series of six wins. Namely, coach Hodgson has after the debacle at last year’s World Cup further rejuvenated his team, which immediately led to a lot more aggressive and faster game, and then ultimately to better results. Thus, after the victory in the friendly match against Norway, they also celebrated as guests in Switzerland with 2-0 in the opening of qualifications, but then they achieved a maximum impact at home against San Marino and Slovenia, and on the side in Estonia.

Meanwhile they celebrated in the friendly match against Scotland, on their Celtic Park, which has only helped their self-confidence before the continuation of qualifications. Let us add that goalkeepers Forster and Foster, defender Shaw, midfielders Lallana, Wilshere and Oxlade-Chamberlain and strikes Sturridge and Rodriguez will all have to miss this duel with Lithuania because of injuries, while defender Chambers, midfielder Downing and strikers Lambert and Berahino were not even called to participate due to their poor form.

Probable lineups England: Hart – Clyne, Jones, Cahill, Gibbs – Henderson, Carrick, Milner – Sterling – Rooney, Welbeck
Lithuania

As for the team of Lithuania, they have used their favorable schedule in the first two qualifying rounds and celebrated with 2-0 in the away match against outsiders from San Marino, and after that in the neighboring derby against Estonia they also reached a domestic triumph of 1-0. However, already against their first serious opponent Slovenia they showed that they are still limited team, so they were defeated at home with 2-0 in the third round, while in the next match in Switzerland they suffered a defeat of even 4-0.

In this way the Lithuanians have already fallen to fourth place in the standings, but they still have the same number of points as the second Slovenia and third Switzerland. We should also add that they late last year did a good job in the friendly match against much better team of Ukraine, because as guests in Kiev they managed to play 0-0. However, now they themselves are aware that they will have a pretty tough job against the leading England and therefore coach Pankratkjevas has announced a distinctly defensive setup, however what certainly creates additional problems are the absences of the injured strikers Spalvis, Novikovas and Matulevicius and midfielder Zulpa.

Probable lineups Lithuania: Arlauskis – Freidgeimas, Kijanskas, Zaliukas, Andriuskevicius – Mikoliunas, Panka, Vicius, Vaitkunas – Kalonas – Cernych
England vs. Lithuania PICK

Of course that the English are big favourites in this game, especially since they are playing at home, but also the team of Lithuania has already in the last friendly match with Ukraine showed some progress and therefore we feel that they will not experience a disaster now at Wembley as they did in the previous qualifying match against Switzerland.

Pick: Asian Handicap +2.5 Lithuania

Stake: 5/10

Odds: 1.6

Isner – Anderson

Home favorite John Isner takes on South African Kevin Anderson in the third round at Indian Wells. Both guys had a bye in the first round and won their second round matches in straight sets.


Isner defeated Melzer 6-3 6-4 for a much needed breath of fresh air after having an awful season, highlighted by blowing USA’s Davis Cup tie against Great Britain last week by losing to James Ward. John`s form is really bad for some time now and it seems he can`t catch a break. He did play well against Melzer (especially on serve, 0 break points allowed) but not anything special, after all Melzer is more like old-boys material right now – even if I did expect Jurgen to cause Isner more problems due to the matchup between them. All in all, the American could gain some confidence from that win and also from the fact that Indian Wells is one of his favorite tournaments.

Kevin Anderson is playing the best tennis of his life right now, he`s having a really good year with a R16 showing at the Australian Open, final in Memphis and two other semifinals – after having a solid 2014 as well. He had a rather straightforward win in the second round against Delbonis, 7-5 6-4, holding serve for the entire match.


Isner leads the Head 2 Head 7-3 (7-4 if we take into account a semi-official match in Hopman Cup) and won the last 4 meetings. On hard the score is 6-4. The Head 2 Head would suggestst a matchup advantage for John, but I doubt that is the case. Both are big servers, and the Head 2 Head is more due to the fact that Isner is simply a slightly better player when in form, while Anderson started playing at a top level no earlier than.

The odds on Anderson are going up because of the Head 2 Head and I`m really tempted to bet on Kevin, but I will stick with a tip on a first set tiebreak. In the direct meetings so far there were 5 first set tiebreaks in 11 matches and the two played a total of 14 tiebreaks in 25 sets, which is a percentage of over 55%. Obviously both are big servers and not so good returners, especially Isner. There`s also the fact that each player held serve with authority in the previous round, not allowing any breaks, so that will give Isner and Anderson big confidence on serve early in the match.

I do think that Anderson should be the favorite, but all in all it looks like a relatively evenly matched clash and my tip will be a first set tiebreak to occur. Prediction: John Isner – Kevin Anderson 7-6 5-7 6-7.


Pick: First set tiebreak – Yes
Odds: 2.10