Wolfsburg – Napoli

Europa League quarterfinals, Wolfsburg against Napoli at VW Arena.


I think there is a trend now, a trend that says German football is the best ever and Italian football is crap. Well, I disagree. Things are not black and white.

Napoli is a team worth of finishing top 3 in Italy, every season. Maybe you remember what i wrote to you about Napoli’s owner in my last pick? I said that he punished the players and put them in isolation after the Lazio game. The result? Next game, Napoli destroyed Fiorentina, 3-0 result. Now they are still in isolation so i expect the good results to continue.

Wolfsburg is a good team but their success comes from the attacking football they play and the quality strikers they have. Napoli’s defense is not rock solid, for sure, but i think Napoli’s attack and offensive midfield is a little better than Wolfsburg’s. De Bruyne is brilliant, but Higuain is better than Bas Dost any time of the day. Dost is overachieving, but let’s not forget he came from the Dutch second division while Higuain came from Real.

I think it’s a handicap for the Germans that Wolfsburg played Inter before Napoli, because they will relax thinking Italian teams are rubbish … but they are in for a surprise.

My prediction is +0.5 handicap on Napoli. CLassic 8 unit stake on this bet. Good Luck!

Pick: Napoli +0,5
Odds: 2.09

FC Porto – Bayern

FC Porto hosts Bayern Munich at Estadio Dragao in the first leg of this Champions League quarterfinal.


Porto had no problems getting past Basel in the previous round, winning 4-0 at home after 1-1 in Switzerland. But Porto had plenty of important matches since than … they are involved in two fronts, Champions League and Portugese league, where they are 3 points behind Benfica. Porto won the last two matches in style vs. Rio Ave and Estoril, but two weeks ago lost to Maritimo 1-2 in the Portugese Cup. Porto has a number of key players missing or questionable: Ivan Marcano is suspendes, Jakcson Martinez and Cristian Tello are questionable.

FC Porto projected lineup:
Fabiano – Danilo, Maicon, Martins Indi, Sandro – Casemiro, Brahimi, Evandro, Herrera – Aboubakar, Martinez

Bayern Munich gets some players back from injury, like Thiago Alcantara, but other key players will miss from the lineup: Robben, Ribery, Martinez, Alaba, Schweinsteiger, probably Benatia as well. All key players and Bayern had some problems without them in the last big match they played … one week ago, 0-0 at Leverkusen in the Cup (Bayern won at penalties). In the weekend, the Bavarians easily beat Frankfurt by a 3-0 result, resting some players like Neuer.

Bayern Munich projected lineup:
Neuer – Rafinha, Boateng, Dante, Bernat – Lahm, Thiago Alcantara, Xabi Alonso – Muller, Gotze, Lewandowski

Bayern is in great form and in the previous Champions League round, destroyed Shakhtar 7-0 with a aggregate result. Even if the first leg away was only 0-0, Bayern was very unlucky not to win it … including being disadvantaged by the referee. Porto is a little stronger than the Ukrainean team, mainly because of superior experience … but I do not think they can resist this incredible force of Bayern and get a result, not even at home. Porto is in the middle of a very tough and busy schedule and they do not know how to sit back, park the bus … Bayern will have more spaces than usual and will punish Porto.

It will be a real test to the depth of the Bavarian visitors (no Robben, Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Alaba), but my tip will be Bayern Munich to win and I am confident enough to stake 9 units on this bet. Correct score prediction: FC Porto – Bayern Munich 1-2.

Pick: Bayern Munich
Odds: 1.85

Juventus – Monaco

Juventus takes on AS Monaco in Turin as Champions League football is back – with the Italian Champions looking to avoid becoming another big scalp for the French side.


Juventus has been rather disappointing lately, barely winning against weak opponents in Serie A or even losing (1-0 against Parma over the weekend. It could be argued that the league is not a priority anymore and they did turn up to do the job when it mattered, beating Fiorentina 3-0 on the road in Coppa Italia after losing the first leg 1-2 and demolishing Dortmund in Germany with the same scoreline in UCL. However, weak performances can add up and affect morale even if they did not count in the standings – and the horrible loss against Parma will surely not give Juve confidence.

Monaco is on the back of a convincing 3-0 win at Caen, clearly playing the best football they played all season right now. They have been incredibly effective in the Champions League and to get past a red hot team like Arsenal was a massive achievement. Monaco lost just twice in the last 12 matches, against PSG and Arsenal – with the Arsenal loss being somewhat planned, as Leonardo Jardim clearly approached that 2nd leg knowing he had goals to spare.


Team news & lineups:

Juve has a number of serious injury worries, missing key players like Pogba, Asamoah, Caceres and possibly Pirlo as well (he`s 50-50 to start). Romulo and Marrone are out as well. Monaco will only miss backup striker Lacina Traore, with Bakayoko doubtful.

Juventus: Buffon – Evra, Chiellini, Bonucci, Lichsteiner – Vidal, Pirlo, Marchisio – Pereyra – Morata, Tevez

AS Monaco: Subasic – Kurzawa, Abdennour, Wallace, Fabinho – Toulalan, Kondogbia, Moutinho – Martial, Ferreira-Carrasco, Berbatov

Juventus will be keen to avoid Arsenal’s fate and be more patient and cautious with their attacking approach. If they do start leaving open spaces, it could be a disaster, especially now that Monaco has counterattacking maestro Ferreira Carrasco fit in the starting lineup (he came on late against Arsenal in both matches and created havoc). Considering Monaco’s defensive and counterattacking brilliance in this type of away match and looking at Juve’s shaky form, my tip is Monaco +1,5 handicap. it should be close and if Monaco loses, it will likely be by just one goal. Pogba will also be sorely missed by Juve. Prediction: Juventus – Monaco 1-1.

Pick: AS Monaco (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13

Eibar vs Rayo Vallecano

Eibar vs. Rayo Vallecano / La Liga – The first match in La Liga after a break caused by obligations of the Spanish national team is a the duel between a team that are positioned in the lower part of the table and are very close to the relegation zone and a team that are positioned in a quiet middle of the table. The hosts are those who are endangered due to a long lasting series without a victory, while the guests have no such worries having seven points more and being in a much better shape. Eibar is really under a lot of pressure and they must win, unlike Rayo Vallecano who can play its favourite game without much tactics. In the first part of the season Eibar had surprised at the Vallecas and won by 3-2, while out of their four La Liga matches each team won twice. Begins: 03.04.2015 – 20:45 CET
Eibar

Little by little Eibar is getting closer to the position that was predicted for them at the beginning of season. In the first part of the season this team was a real hit and was firmly positioned in the upper part of the table, while at the beginning of the second part of the season they won two victories. Then began their decline and this team didn’t win since the beginning of January. They have played exactly ten matches in this period and only two were not defeats, while those two were draws. The negative series has begun with a draw and they drew in the last round with Granada away, which is a very good result considering that the opponent were a team who are positioned in the relegation zone.

They were mostly in a subordinate position but they managed to preserve the initial 0-0 till the end of match. However, draws will not leave them in La Liga and instead they have to start winning. This seems like a pretty good chance but they will not be complete because stopper Raul Navas and midfielder del Moral are injured. On the other hand Ekiza is back in the team after expiration of the suspension and he will surely cover the stopper position, while Piovaccari goes in the attack.

Probable lineups Eibar: J. Jimenez – Boveda, Ekiza, Anibarro, L. Castellano – Dani Garcia, Borja – Lara, Saul, Arruabarrena – Piovaccari
Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano is worry-free in the middle of the table although they cannot simply completely relax since the relegation zone is not too far, just ten points below. This of course doesn’t mean that Rayo should start playing tactics because this team don’t play like that for a long time and in fact play quite openly in every match to win. They still have only two draws from the first two rounds, which means that they didn’t draw for 26 rounds and it is the best indicator of their play style. With such game they tend to receive a lot of goals and average more than two per game when play away.

They are currently in a quite good shape and have won four times in the last six rounds and they lost the two remaining matches to Athletic and Barcelona away, ??where objectively couldn’t do much. It should be said that all four victories were won at home and that they didn’t win away for a long time. Coach Jemez has a lot of problems with the team because stopper Amaya and midfielder Trashorras cannot play because of yellow cards, while attackers Baptistao and Miku are injured, but the good news is that stopper Abdoulaye is back in the team.

Probable lineups Rayo Vallecano: C. Alvarez – Tito, Abdoulaye, Ze Castro, Nacho – Raul Baena, J. Sanchez – Kakuta, Bueno, Lica – Manucho
Eibar – Rayo Vallecano PICK

This match is very important for Eibar and they really must try to win, while Rayo Vallecano will certainly not just defend their goal, simply because it is not their style and on top of it they are completely worry-free. Therefore, contrary to many expectations, we forecast here a match with plenty of goals.

Pick: over 2.5 goals

Stake: 5/10

Odds: 2.15