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Azerbaijan played really great vs. Italy last month and almost got away with a draw, but Chiellini gave Italy a 2-1 win … great football from Azerbaijan, solid defensive efforts and also some good counterattacks. Unfortunately Azerbaijan followed that with a 6-0 loss in Croatia … previously lost 2-1 with Bulgaria, so they have 0 points in 3 matches. Also overall Azerbaijan lost 4 consecutive games with a 2-14 goal difference. An encouraging statistics for Azerbaijan is that they lost only 1 from the last 7 home games (vs Bulgaria) … but they met no quality opponents except for Russia (1-1), and Russia back then had no motivation. After the Croatia disaster, the head coach Berti Vogts has stepped down and they have an interim coach now.
Norway is trying to rebuild after some poor results in last years … they have some interesting young players and people have expectations from them. So far Norway performed good in the Euro 2016 qualifying … lost first game 0-2 to Italy, but won 3-0 in Malta and 2-1 vs. Bulgaria. Last match was a defeat to Estonia 4 days ago but it was only a preparation friendly. Norway can play good offensive football but can have problems in defense … they are a team in forming but have a decent chance to reach Euro 2016 and a win today would be golden.
I like the chances for this match to see some goals … even if Norway will miss regular striker Joshua King (Blackburn). Azerbaijan allowed 14 goals in the last 4 matches so they are not exactly too strong at the back, making big errors in every match. Norway as I said plays well in offense with some talented and skilfull players, but we saw vs. Italy or vs. Bulgaria that their defense can look really bad at points. I see Norway getting a win but it should be very tight and they will probably let a goal in in the process My tip will be over 2,25 goals. Correct score prediction: Azerbaijan – Norway 1-2.
Pick: over 2,25 goals
Odds: 2.24
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