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Bautista-Agut vs. Thiem / ATP Marseille – The first quarter-finals pair at the tournament in Marseille are Spaniard R. Bautista-Agut and Austrian D. Thiem. Bautista-Agut qualified for the quarter-finals after he defeated V. Pospisil by 2-0, while Thiem had an easier path toward the quarter-finals after D. Goffin surrendered the match in the first set at the score 5-1 in games. Begins: 20.02.2015 – 12:00 CET
R. Bautista-Agut
Agut is 16th ranked tennis player at the ATP list and he won two titles in his career, both last season at tournaments in s-Hertogenbosch and Stuttgart, where he defeated Becker and Rosola in finals. He started the season in Chennai, where he reached the semi-finals and lost to Bedene by 2-1, while in Auckland, at the Australian Open and in Rotterdam he couldn’t go further from second rounds when he lost to Mannarino, Muller and Monfils, respectivelly. He made one of the better results last season in Madrid where he reached the semi-finals in which he lost to Nadal. The second good result was the fourth round at the US Open whe he lost to Federer.
Regarding the match of the previous round in which Agut defeated Pospisil by 7-6, 6-4 in sets, it is important to say that the Canadian had expectedly served better, having 8 aces and 68% of successful first service, and 80% of points won after the first service. However, what made the decisive difference and brought victory to the Spaniard was number of points won after the second serve. Pospisil won only 6 of 21 points at his second serve, while Agut’s ratio was 19 out of 28.
D. Thiem
Thiem has made a significant progress in the ATP rankings previous year so he occupied 36th place in the middle of last season, which was also the best rating in his career. Somewhat weaker results that he made at the end of last year and beginning of this one downgraded him at his current 48th place, where this quarter-final is his best result this season. He had played in Auckland and at the Australian Open, where he couldn’t go further from first rounds, and was bit more successful in Rotterdam, where he lost a match of the second round to Stakhovsky.
The Austrian reached these quarter-finals quite easily because favoured Goffin has surrendered the match before the end of the first set. However, we must say that Thiem had up to that point an advantage of 5-1, but he had incredibly weak percentage of the first service of only 15%, i.e. just two won points. In contrast, the second service was at 91% or 10 out of 11.
R. Bautista-Agut – D. Thiem PICK
The only match so far between these two players had taken place this season at the Australian Open, and the Spaniard won it by 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 7-6 in sets. We will not list all statistics details from that match but we will say that the Spaniard had an advantage of 4% to 5%, which is completely in line with the final result. Young Austrian depends too much on the first serve, while Agut is simply more complete player and this is his main advantage, so we expect that he qualify for the semi-finals.
Pick: Bautista-Aguta wins
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.61
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