sms reversal
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среда, 1. јул 2015.
Shirak vs Zrinjski
I thought for a while about this game, and I was wondering if the bosnian side is capable to take a good result there in Armenia. Sometimes is difficult to evaluate how powerful are two teams in these low leagues, and that will be the main problem of the Europa League's matches, but in my opinion Bosnian league is BETTER than Armenian league. And the odds are still changing in favour of the guests, that 2 days ago were TOO much favourites.
Zrinski finished 3rd last season, and stepped back from last year, when they won the domestic league and played against Maribor in UCL's qualification round. This is a extremely solid team at home, where has lost just one game (vs Sarajevo in Bosnian Cup) since 04/2013, with an impressive 1/44 games lost during that run. Far from home, as everybody could imagine, is a different team. I guess they're very confident in his game at home, and as guests they tries to play very defensively. Last season they conceded 13 goals in 30 league games, and playing this game at the start of the season, in my opinion, will see less goal chances than a game in middle of the season. Zrinjski is under 2.5 goals in 20 of his 23 last matches, and as away team is under 2.5 in 9/10 games. They drew in a only friendly game this new season (1-1 vs Zeljeznicar). Now they have a new coach that seems that doesn't like to play defensively, but the team will need some time to play they way his coach wants. Marinovic was the Borac Banja's coach last season, and the team finished with 26 goals scored and 26 received in 30 games played. He said that they want to go through, but the travel is uncertain, because they don't know how good is Shirak (lol, scouting rules).
Shirak is still the favourite here. It's a team that has been improving last years in domestic competition. This was a weak team since 2012, but they're the last 2 years in a good level. The main squad is formed by local players, but last season they sourprised signing 2 Ivory Coast players. Both two scored the 50% of the team goals, and are right now the main danger for guests. The backbone's squad is slightly old, with some years playing together, but they alternate some young players and others +35yo players. Shirak is a scorer team when play with teams with less quality upfront, but they struggled when play against Alashkert, Pyunic and these kind of armenian's top teams. For sure won't be the same a game between them and a low-classified team, and a game against these bosnian guys.
Bosnian side, seems that moved well in the summer transfer, and add some good pieces to his squad. They lost Crnov, but signed a Serbian players Zeravika and Filipovic came from the domestic league teams, as young bosnian player Zakaric. One acquisition from outside Bosnia, Mesanovic, that returns to the country after his year in Croatia (Osijek), but he won't play that one, as Zakaric.
All in all, I could see a rough away team, that is unlikely that lost by a +2 goal margin. Zrinjski +1 is @1.60, but most of times this kind of bet is for void, so I'll choose the under, that I think it will happen more than 55% of time. Without see any game of these two teams recently, it's hard to venture for a double chance's opportunity with guests, that pays @2.15, but it's an interesting opcion for small stakes.
PD: Odds are rising fast for guests. Shirak pays @1.46 two days ago and today is @2.15 now at 1:00pm, and dropping for goals under in some sits that puts this bet around @1.60, but many other still have @1.75-@1.80. I think the market is a bit confused with that game.
Shirak vs Zrinjski betting tips Shirak vs Zrinjski betting tips conclusion Stake 9 Stake: 9/10
Pick Under 2.5
Odds 1.83
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gabala
VS
Dinamo Tbilisi from Georgia welcomes Qabala from Azerbaijan in the first Qualifying round of the Europa league. Both teams finished third last season but the hosts with much smaller difference to the champion than the visitors. Dinamo has much more experience in Europe playing CL qulifications and EL Qualifications. They are a multiple Georgian champion and in 2013 and 2014 most recently.
Dinamo is ranked 157 by UEFa while Qabala is placed 20 places lower. But Qabala is worth more by transfermarkt and made investments in last seasons. They have players from Ukraine, Belarus, Romania and recently brought some solid players like Vernydub from Zorya, Stankovic from Inter Baku, Zenjov from Torpedo Moscow, Antonov from Aktobe. A lot of the players have arrived recently and I doubt they will make a compact unit so early.
The same thing happened last year I remember when Qabala made a debut in EL against Siroki Brijeg. A big investment was made and the odds droped big on Qabala but they fell miserably and lost at home 0:2 and 3:0 away. They don`t have the same quality and especially not the experience the hosts have.
The teams played some friendlies and Qabala played 1:0 and 1:1 against Inter Baku while Dinamo played 0:1 against Shkendija, 3:1 against Domzale and 2:0 against Zavrc.
Dinamo has lost just 1 EL home game since 2007 and it was 0:5 against Tottenham in 2015. They have some notable results like 1:1 vs AEK, 2:0 KR, 1:1 Sturm, 2:0 Crvena Zvezda though it must be said not recently. Still I fancy them to make the most of their home ground against a team of dubious quality.
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gabala betting tips Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gabala betting tips conclusion Stake 8 Stake: 8/10
Pick Dinamo Tbilisi
Odds 2.00
петак, 12. јун 2015.
Poland vs Georgia
Saturday 13th June 2015, 17:00 kick off (UK Time). Poland vs Georgia. Euro 2016 qualification game will see Group D leaders Poland host 5th placed Georgia in a game that looks set for goals. There are only potentially 3 places up for grabs in Group D and I think that 2 of them 3 will be won by Poland and World Champions, Germany. The potential 3rd in my opinion will go to Scotland (Sorry Ireland Fans).
The hosts Poland are the only unbeaten team in Group D thus far, they’ve even beat world champions Germany 2-0 at home back in October. Confidence will be very high within the Polish camp and I can understand why, they have a very strong squad and have every chance of winning the group! They have also got the best goal difference (+13 from just 5 games). They have had a few disappointing results during this qualifying campaign, drawing 1-1 away at Ireland and drawing 2-2 at home to Scotland! So I know they can sometimes slip up, however, I think they will be fully motivated for this game knowing that chasers Germany have an easy game away at Gibraltar, which they will win, the question is by how many! With this in mind I think Poland will also want to increase their goal difference and bag a few vs Georgia to keep the upper hand.
Their previous game vs Georgia back in November 2014 ended 4-0 in favour of the Poles. They totally dominated the game from start to finish and Georgia never looked like scoring. Georgia did sit back a little and the tactics looked as though they were playing for a point, which was looking good up to half time (0-0). However, once Poland broke the deadlock this opened the floodgates for Poland and there was no stopping them, the game finished 4-0 to Poland.
The Poland manager Nawalka should have a fully fit squad to select from, the main squad member, Lewandowski will lead the team out, hopefully to a victory.
Georgia on the other hand head into the game having won 1 and lost 4 of their 5 qualifying games so far. The game they won was nothing major to shout about, they beat Gibraltar 3-0 away from home in October 2014. They did have a lot of possession in this game, however, this would be expected considering their opponents! Gibraltar have won just 1 game (1-0 at home to Malta). Georgia have only lost by 1 goal vs Scotland and Ireland, however, when they’ve played against the top 2 teams they’ve lost 2-0 and 4-0 and both of these games was on home soil! I was a fan of the Georgia manager Ketsbaia back in his playing days, however, he has a tough task on his hands with the Georgia squad, considering the group they are in. Like Poland, Georgia have a fully fit squad to select from, I expect another defensive display, however, I just think Poland will have too much for Georgia.
I’ve decided to provide this tip early as I’ve just backed it myself at a great price of 2.00, I have no doubt this will drop as the kick off gets closer. I will be backing Poland -1.5 AH @ a price of 2.00 with BetVictor. I can see Poland winning at least by 2 goals, hopefully more.
Bet: Poland -1.5 Asian handicap @ 2.00
The hosts Poland are the only unbeaten team in Group D thus far, they’ve even beat world champions Germany 2-0 at home back in October. Confidence will be very high within the Polish camp and I can understand why, they have a very strong squad and have every chance of winning the group! They have also got the best goal difference (+13 from just 5 games). They have had a few disappointing results during this qualifying campaign, drawing 1-1 away at Ireland and drawing 2-2 at home to Scotland! So I know they can sometimes slip up, however, I think they will be fully motivated for this game knowing that chasers Germany have an easy game away at Gibraltar, which they will win, the question is by how many! With this in mind I think Poland will also want to increase their goal difference and bag a few vs Georgia to keep the upper hand.
Their previous game vs Georgia back in November 2014 ended 4-0 in favour of the Poles. They totally dominated the game from start to finish and Georgia never looked like scoring. Georgia did sit back a little and the tactics looked as though they were playing for a point, which was looking good up to half time (0-0). However, once Poland broke the deadlock this opened the floodgates for Poland and there was no stopping them, the game finished 4-0 to Poland.
The Poland manager Nawalka should have a fully fit squad to select from, the main squad member, Lewandowski will lead the team out, hopefully to a victory.
Georgia on the other hand head into the game having won 1 and lost 4 of their 5 qualifying games so far. The game they won was nothing major to shout about, they beat Gibraltar 3-0 away from home in October 2014. They did have a lot of possession in this game, however, this would be expected considering their opponents! Gibraltar have won just 1 game (1-0 at home to Malta). Georgia have only lost by 1 goal vs Scotland and Ireland, however, when they’ve played against the top 2 teams they’ve lost 2-0 and 4-0 and both of these games was on home soil! I was a fan of the Georgia manager Ketsbaia back in his playing days, however, he has a tough task on his hands with the Georgia squad, considering the group they are in. Like Poland, Georgia have a fully fit squad to select from, I expect another defensive display, however, I just think Poland will have too much for Georgia.
I’ve decided to provide this tip early as I’ve just backed it myself at a great price of 2.00, I have no doubt this will drop as the kick off gets closer. I will be backing Poland -1.5 AH @ a price of 2.00 with BetVictor. I can see Poland winning at least by 2 goals, hopefully more.
Bet: Poland -1.5 Asian handicap @ 2.00
субота, 9. мај 2015.
Ath Bilbao – Deportivo
Athletic Bilbao hosts Deportivo La Coruna in the 36th round of the Spanish La Liga.
Bilbao is coming after a 0-0 draw at Vicente Calderon vs. Atletico Madrid … the 2nd consecutive draw and the 4th match in a row in which they did not taste defeat. Bilbao has played some of the best football in La Liga in the past 2 months and now with the Copa Del Rey final inching closer, they want to keep it up and be in the best possible form when the big game comes. Bilbao won 14 of the last 18 possible points at home in La Liga Primera … 4 wins and 2 draws. For today hosts will miss Muniain, Iraola, Gomez and the suspended Bustinza.
Deportivo will hope they can take advantage of Eibar’s somewhat surprising loss on Friday and climb out of the relegation zone with a win or (more likely) tie Eibar in points with a draw result today … but of course it will not be easy at San Mames, especially with Deportivo’s current form: 13 consecutive games without a win … 7 wins, 6 draws. Depor is also not particularly a good team when traveling, posting a statline of 2 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses on the road this season. Wilk is ruled out of the lineup today … Dominguez and Cavaleiro are questionable.
Deportivo is the team that needs the points more and for sure they will leave their hearts out on the pitch today … but even so it is hard to see them coming at San Mames and getting something … specially not in this kind of form and when Athletic is playing such good football. I don’t expect Bilbao to hand Depor a big beating but it should be a routine home win … a close score maybe, but without any real tension about the final result.
My tip will be an Athletic Bilbao win … they can’t afford to lose form and morale coming into the Copa Del Rey final. Correct score prediction: Athletic Bilbao – Deportivo La Coruna 2-1.
Pick: Athletic Bilbao
Odds: 1.65
Bilbao is coming after a 0-0 draw at Vicente Calderon vs. Atletico Madrid … the 2nd consecutive draw and the 4th match in a row in which they did not taste defeat. Bilbao has played some of the best football in La Liga in the past 2 months and now with the Copa Del Rey final inching closer, they want to keep it up and be in the best possible form when the big game comes. Bilbao won 14 of the last 18 possible points at home in La Liga Primera … 4 wins and 2 draws. For today hosts will miss Muniain, Iraola, Gomez and the suspended Bustinza.
Deportivo will hope they can take advantage of Eibar’s somewhat surprising loss on Friday and climb out of the relegation zone with a win or (more likely) tie Eibar in points with a draw result today … but of course it will not be easy at San Mames, especially with Deportivo’s current form: 13 consecutive games without a win … 7 wins, 6 draws. Depor is also not particularly a good team when traveling, posting a statline of 2 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses on the road this season. Wilk is ruled out of the lineup today … Dominguez and Cavaleiro are questionable.
Deportivo is the team that needs the points more and for sure they will leave their hearts out on the pitch today … but even so it is hard to see them coming at San Mames and getting something … specially not in this kind of form and when Athletic is playing such good football. I don’t expect Bilbao to hand Depor a big beating but it should be a routine home win … a close score maybe, but without any real tension about the final result.
My tip will be an Athletic Bilbao win … they can’t afford to lose form and morale coming into the Copa Del Rey final. Correct score prediction: Athletic Bilbao – Deportivo La Coruna 2-1.
Pick: Athletic Bilbao
Odds: 1.65
четвртак, 16. април 2015.
Wolfsburg – Napoli
Europa League quarterfinals, Wolfsburg against Napoli at VW Arena.
I think there is a trend now, a trend that says German football is the best ever and Italian football is crap. Well, I disagree. Things are not black and white.
Napoli is a team worth of finishing top 3 in Italy, every season. Maybe you remember what i wrote to you about Napoli’s owner in my last pick? I said that he punished the players and put them in isolation after the Lazio game. The result? Next game, Napoli destroyed Fiorentina, 3-0 result. Now they are still in isolation so i expect the good results to continue.
Wolfsburg is a good team but their success comes from the attacking football they play and the quality strikers they have. Napoli’s defense is not rock solid, for sure, but i think Napoli’s attack and offensive midfield is a little better than Wolfsburg’s. De Bruyne is brilliant, but Higuain is better than Bas Dost any time of the day. Dost is overachieving, but let’s not forget he came from the Dutch second division while Higuain came from Real.
I think it’s a handicap for the Germans that Wolfsburg played Inter before Napoli, because they will relax thinking Italian teams are rubbish … but they are in for a surprise.
My prediction is +0.5 handicap on Napoli. CLassic 8 unit stake on this bet. Good Luck!
Pick: Napoli +0,5
Odds: 2.09
I think there is a trend now, a trend that says German football is the best ever and Italian football is crap. Well, I disagree. Things are not black and white.
Napoli is a team worth of finishing top 3 in Italy, every season. Maybe you remember what i wrote to you about Napoli’s owner in my last pick? I said that he punished the players and put them in isolation after the Lazio game. The result? Next game, Napoli destroyed Fiorentina, 3-0 result. Now they are still in isolation so i expect the good results to continue.
Wolfsburg is a good team but their success comes from the attacking football they play and the quality strikers they have. Napoli’s defense is not rock solid, for sure, but i think Napoli’s attack and offensive midfield is a little better than Wolfsburg’s. De Bruyne is brilliant, but Higuain is better than Bas Dost any time of the day. Dost is overachieving, but let’s not forget he came from the Dutch second division while Higuain came from Real.
I think it’s a handicap for the Germans that Wolfsburg played Inter before Napoli, because they will relax thinking Italian teams are rubbish … but they are in for a surprise.
My prediction is +0.5 handicap on Napoli. CLassic 8 unit stake on this bet. Good Luck!
Pick: Napoli +0,5
Odds: 2.09
среда, 15. април 2015.
FC Porto – Bayern
FC Porto hosts Bayern Munich at Estadio Dragao in the first leg of this Champions League quarterfinal.
Porto had no problems getting past Basel in the previous round, winning 4-0 at home after 1-1 in Switzerland. But Porto had plenty of important matches since than … they are involved in two fronts, Champions League and Portugese league, where they are 3 points behind Benfica. Porto won the last two matches in style vs. Rio Ave and Estoril, but two weeks ago lost to Maritimo 1-2 in the Portugese Cup. Porto has a number of key players missing or questionable: Ivan Marcano is suspendes, Jakcson Martinez and Cristian Tello are questionable.
FC Porto projected lineup:
Fabiano – Danilo, Maicon, Martins Indi, Sandro – Casemiro, Brahimi, Evandro, Herrera – Aboubakar, Martinez
Bayern Munich gets some players back from injury, like Thiago Alcantara, but other key players will miss from the lineup: Robben, Ribery, Martinez, Alaba, Schweinsteiger, probably Benatia as well. All key players and Bayern had some problems without them in the last big match they played … one week ago, 0-0 at Leverkusen in the Cup (Bayern won at penalties). In the weekend, the Bavarians easily beat Frankfurt by a 3-0 result, resting some players like Neuer.
Bayern Munich projected lineup:
Neuer – Rafinha, Boateng, Dante, Bernat – Lahm, Thiago Alcantara, Xabi Alonso – Muller, Gotze, Lewandowski
Bayern is in great form and in the previous Champions League round, destroyed Shakhtar 7-0 with a aggregate result. Even if the first leg away was only 0-0, Bayern was very unlucky not to win it … including being disadvantaged by the referee. Porto is a little stronger than the Ukrainean team, mainly because of superior experience … but I do not think they can resist this incredible force of Bayern and get a result, not even at home. Porto is in the middle of a very tough and busy schedule and they do not know how to sit back, park the bus … Bayern will have more spaces than usual and will punish Porto.
It will be a real test to the depth of the Bavarian visitors (no Robben, Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Alaba), but my tip will be Bayern Munich to win and I am confident enough to stake 9 units on this bet. Correct score prediction: FC Porto – Bayern Munich 1-2.
Pick: Bayern Munich
Odds: 1.85
Porto had no problems getting past Basel in the previous round, winning 4-0 at home after 1-1 in Switzerland. But Porto had plenty of important matches since than … they are involved in two fronts, Champions League and Portugese league, where they are 3 points behind Benfica. Porto won the last two matches in style vs. Rio Ave and Estoril, but two weeks ago lost to Maritimo 1-2 in the Portugese Cup. Porto has a number of key players missing or questionable: Ivan Marcano is suspendes, Jakcson Martinez and Cristian Tello are questionable.
FC Porto projected lineup:
Fabiano – Danilo, Maicon, Martins Indi, Sandro – Casemiro, Brahimi, Evandro, Herrera – Aboubakar, Martinez
Bayern Munich gets some players back from injury, like Thiago Alcantara, but other key players will miss from the lineup: Robben, Ribery, Martinez, Alaba, Schweinsteiger, probably Benatia as well. All key players and Bayern had some problems without them in the last big match they played … one week ago, 0-0 at Leverkusen in the Cup (Bayern won at penalties). In the weekend, the Bavarians easily beat Frankfurt by a 3-0 result, resting some players like Neuer.
Bayern Munich projected lineup:
Neuer – Rafinha, Boateng, Dante, Bernat – Lahm, Thiago Alcantara, Xabi Alonso – Muller, Gotze, Lewandowski
Bayern is in great form and in the previous Champions League round, destroyed Shakhtar 7-0 with a aggregate result. Even if the first leg away was only 0-0, Bayern was very unlucky not to win it … including being disadvantaged by the referee. Porto is a little stronger than the Ukrainean team, mainly because of superior experience … but I do not think they can resist this incredible force of Bayern and get a result, not even at home. Porto is in the middle of a very tough and busy schedule and they do not know how to sit back, park the bus … Bayern will have more spaces than usual and will punish Porto.
It will be a real test to the depth of the Bavarian visitors (no Robben, Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Alaba), but my tip will be Bayern Munich to win and I am confident enough to stake 9 units on this bet. Correct score prediction: FC Porto – Bayern Munich 1-2.
Pick: Bayern Munich
Odds: 1.85
уторак, 14. април 2015.
Juventus – Monaco
Juventus takes on AS Monaco in Turin as Champions League football is back – with the Italian Champions looking to avoid becoming another big scalp for the French side.
Juventus has been rather disappointing lately, barely winning against weak opponents in Serie A or even losing (1-0 against Parma over the weekend. It could be argued that the league is not a priority anymore and they did turn up to do the job when it mattered, beating Fiorentina 3-0 on the road in Coppa Italia after losing the first leg 1-2 and demolishing Dortmund in Germany with the same scoreline in UCL. However, weak performances can add up and affect morale even if they did not count in the standings – and the horrible loss against Parma will surely not give Juve confidence.
Monaco is on the back of a convincing 3-0 win at Caen, clearly playing the best football they played all season right now. They have been incredibly effective in the Champions League and to get past a red hot team like Arsenal was a massive achievement. Monaco lost just twice in the last 12 matches, against PSG and Arsenal – with the Arsenal loss being somewhat planned, as Leonardo Jardim clearly approached that 2nd leg knowing he had goals to spare.
Team news & lineups:
Juve has a number of serious injury worries, missing key players like Pogba, Asamoah, Caceres and possibly Pirlo as well (he`s 50-50 to start). Romulo and Marrone are out as well. Monaco will only miss backup striker Lacina Traore, with Bakayoko doubtful.
Juventus: Buffon – Evra, Chiellini, Bonucci, Lichsteiner – Vidal, Pirlo, Marchisio – Pereyra – Morata, Tevez
AS Monaco: Subasic – Kurzawa, Abdennour, Wallace, Fabinho – Toulalan, Kondogbia, Moutinho – Martial, Ferreira-Carrasco, Berbatov
Juventus will be keen to avoid Arsenal’s fate and be more patient and cautious with their attacking approach. If they do start leaving open spaces, it could be a disaster, especially now that Monaco has counterattacking maestro Ferreira Carrasco fit in the starting lineup (he came on late against Arsenal in both matches and created havoc). Considering Monaco’s defensive and counterattacking brilliance in this type of away match and looking at Juve’s shaky form, my tip is Monaco +1,5 handicap. it should be close and if Monaco loses, it will likely be by just one goal. Pogba will also be sorely missed by Juve. Prediction: Juventus – Monaco 1-1.
Pick: AS Monaco (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13
Juventus has been rather disappointing lately, barely winning against weak opponents in Serie A or even losing (1-0 against Parma over the weekend. It could be argued that the league is not a priority anymore and they did turn up to do the job when it mattered, beating Fiorentina 3-0 on the road in Coppa Italia after losing the first leg 1-2 and demolishing Dortmund in Germany with the same scoreline in UCL. However, weak performances can add up and affect morale even if they did not count in the standings – and the horrible loss against Parma will surely not give Juve confidence.
Monaco is on the back of a convincing 3-0 win at Caen, clearly playing the best football they played all season right now. They have been incredibly effective in the Champions League and to get past a red hot team like Arsenal was a massive achievement. Monaco lost just twice in the last 12 matches, against PSG and Arsenal – with the Arsenal loss being somewhat planned, as Leonardo Jardim clearly approached that 2nd leg knowing he had goals to spare.
Team news & lineups:
Juve has a number of serious injury worries, missing key players like Pogba, Asamoah, Caceres and possibly Pirlo as well (he`s 50-50 to start). Romulo and Marrone are out as well. Monaco will only miss backup striker Lacina Traore, with Bakayoko doubtful.
Juventus: Buffon – Evra, Chiellini, Bonucci, Lichsteiner – Vidal, Pirlo, Marchisio – Pereyra – Morata, Tevez
AS Monaco: Subasic – Kurzawa, Abdennour, Wallace, Fabinho – Toulalan, Kondogbia, Moutinho – Martial, Ferreira-Carrasco, Berbatov
Juventus will be keen to avoid Arsenal’s fate and be more patient and cautious with their attacking approach. If they do start leaving open spaces, it could be a disaster, especially now that Monaco has counterattacking maestro Ferreira Carrasco fit in the starting lineup (he came on late against Arsenal in both matches and created havoc). Considering Monaco’s defensive and counterattacking brilliance in this type of away match and looking at Juve’s shaky form, my tip is Monaco +1,5 handicap. it should be close and if Monaco loses, it will likely be by just one goal. Pogba will also be sorely missed by Juve. Prediction: Juventus – Monaco 1-1.
Pick: AS Monaco (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13
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