Ath Bilbao – Deportivo

Athletic Bilbao hosts Deportivo La Coruna in the 36th round of the Spanish La Liga.


Bilbao is coming after a 0-0 draw at Vicente Calderon vs. Atletico Madrid … the 2nd consecutive draw and the 4th match in a row in which they did not taste defeat. Bilbao has played some of the best football in La Liga in the past 2 months and now with the Copa Del Rey final inching closer, they want to keep it up and be in the best possible form when the big game comes. Bilbao won 14 of the last 18 possible points at home in La Liga Primera … 4 wins and 2 draws. For today hosts will miss Muniain, Iraola, Gomez and the suspended Bustinza.


Deportivo will hope they can take advantage of Eibar’s somewhat surprising loss on Friday and climb out of the relegation zone with a win or (more likely) tie Eibar in points with a draw result today … but of course it will not be easy at San Mames, especially with Deportivo’s current form: 13 consecutive games without a win … 7 wins, 6 draws. Depor is also not particularly a good team when traveling, posting a statline of 2 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses on the road this season. Wilk is ruled out of the lineup today … Dominguez and Cavaleiro are questionable.

Deportivo is the team that needs the points more and for sure they will leave their hearts out on the pitch today … but even so it is hard to see them coming at San Mames and getting something … specially not in this kind of form and when Athletic is playing such good football. I don’t expect Bilbao to hand Depor a big beating but it should be a routine home win … a close score maybe, but without any real tension about the final result.

My tip will be an Athletic Bilbao win … they can’t afford to lose form and morale coming into the Copa Del Rey final. Correct score prediction: Athletic Bilbao – Deportivo La Coruna 2-1.

Pick: Athletic Bilbao
Odds: 1.65

Wolfsburg – Napoli

Europa League quarterfinals, Wolfsburg against Napoli at VW Arena.


I think there is a trend now, a trend that says German football is the best ever and Italian football is crap. Well, I disagree. Things are not black and white.

Napoli is a team worth of finishing top 3 in Italy, every season. Maybe you remember what i wrote to you about Napoli’s owner in my last pick? I said that he punished the players and put them in isolation after the Lazio game. The result? Next game, Napoli destroyed Fiorentina, 3-0 result. Now they are still in isolation so i expect the good results to continue.

Wolfsburg is a good team but their success comes from the attacking football they play and the quality strikers they have. Napoli’s defense is not rock solid, for sure, but i think Napoli’s attack and offensive midfield is a little better than Wolfsburg’s. De Bruyne is brilliant, but Higuain is better than Bas Dost any time of the day. Dost is overachieving, but let’s not forget he came from the Dutch second division while Higuain came from Real.

I think it’s a handicap for the Germans that Wolfsburg played Inter before Napoli, because they will relax thinking Italian teams are rubbish … but they are in for a surprise.

My prediction is +0.5 handicap on Napoli. CLassic 8 unit stake on this bet. Good Luck!

Pick: Napoli +0,5
Odds: 2.09

FC Porto – Bayern

FC Porto hosts Bayern Munich at Estadio Dragao in the first leg of this Champions League quarterfinal.


Porto had no problems getting past Basel in the previous round, winning 4-0 at home after 1-1 in Switzerland. But Porto had plenty of important matches since than … they are involved in two fronts, Champions League and Portugese league, where they are 3 points behind Benfica. Porto won the last two matches in style vs. Rio Ave and Estoril, but two weeks ago lost to Maritimo 1-2 in the Portugese Cup. Porto has a number of key players missing or questionable: Ivan Marcano is suspendes, Jakcson Martinez and Cristian Tello are questionable.

FC Porto projected lineup:
Fabiano – Danilo, Maicon, Martins Indi, Sandro – Casemiro, Brahimi, Evandro, Herrera – Aboubakar, Martinez

Bayern Munich gets some players back from injury, like Thiago Alcantara, but other key players will miss from the lineup: Robben, Ribery, Martinez, Alaba, Schweinsteiger, probably Benatia as well. All key players and Bayern had some problems without them in the last big match they played … one week ago, 0-0 at Leverkusen in the Cup (Bayern won at penalties). In the weekend, the Bavarians easily beat Frankfurt by a 3-0 result, resting some players like Neuer.

Bayern Munich projected lineup:
Neuer – Rafinha, Boateng, Dante, Bernat – Lahm, Thiago Alcantara, Xabi Alonso – Muller, Gotze, Lewandowski

Bayern is in great form and in the previous Champions League round, destroyed Shakhtar 7-0 with a aggregate result. Even if the first leg away was only 0-0, Bayern was very unlucky not to win it … including being disadvantaged by the referee. Porto is a little stronger than the Ukrainean team, mainly because of superior experience … but I do not think they can resist this incredible force of Bayern and get a result, not even at home. Porto is in the middle of a very tough and busy schedule and they do not know how to sit back, park the bus … Bayern will have more spaces than usual and will punish Porto.

It will be a real test to the depth of the Bavarian visitors (no Robben, Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Alaba), but my tip will be Bayern Munich to win and I am confident enough to stake 9 units on this bet. Correct score prediction: FC Porto – Bayern Munich 1-2.

Pick: Bayern Munich
Odds: 1.85

Juventus – Monaco

Juventus takes on AS Monaco in Turin as Champions League football is back – with the Italian Champions looking to avoid becoming another big scalp for the French side.


Juventus has been rather disappointing lately, barely winning against weak opponents in Serie A or even losing (1-0 against Parma over the weekend. It could be argued that the league is not a priority anymore and they did turn up to do the job when it mattered, beating Fiorentina 3-0 on the road in Coppa Italia after losing the first leg 1-2 and demolishing Dortmund in Germany with the same scoreline in UCL. However, weak performances can add up and affect morale even if they did not count in the standings – and the horrible loss against Parma will surely not give Juve confidence.

Monaco is on the back of a convincing 3-0 win at Caen, clearly playing the best football they played all season right now. They have been incredibly effective in the Champions League and to get past a red hot team like Arsenal was a massive achievement. Monaco lost just twice in the last 12 matches, against PSG and Arsenal – with the Arsenal loss being somewhat planned, as Leonardo Jardim clearly approached that 2nd leg knowing he had goals to spare.


Team news & lineups:

Juve has a number of serious injury worries, missing key players like Pogba, Asamoah, Caceres and possibly Pirlo as well (he`s 50-50 to start). Romulo and Marrone are out as well. Monaco will only miss backup striker Lacina Traore, with Bakayoko doubtful.

Juventus: Buffon – Evra, Chiellini, Bonucci, Lichsteiner – Vidal, Pirlo, Marchisio – Pereyra – Morata, Tevez

AS Monaco: Subasic – Kurzawa, Abdennour, Wallace, Fabinho – Toulalan, Kondogbia, Moutinho – Martial, Ferreira-Carrasco, Berbatov

Juventus will be keen to avoid Arsenal’s fate and be more patient and cautious with their attacking approach. If they do start leaving open spaces, it could be a disaster, especially now that Monaco has counterattacking maestro Ferreira Carrasco fit in the starting lineup (he came on late against Arsenal in both matches and created havoc). Considering Monaco’s defensive and counterattacking brilliance in this type of away match and looking at Juve’s shaky form, my tip is Monaco +1,5 handicap. it should be close and if Monaco loses, it will likely be by just one goal. Pogba will also be sorely missed by Juve. Prediction: Juventus – Monaco 1-1.

Pick: AS Monaco (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13

Eibar vs Rayo Vallecano

Eibar vs. Rayo Vallecano / La Liga – The first match in La Liga after a break caused by obligations of the Spanish national team is a the duel between a team that are positioned in the lower part of the table and are very close to the relegation zone and a team that are positioned in a quiet middle of the table. The hosts are those who are endangered due to a long lasting series without a victory, while the guests have no such worries having seven points more and being in a much better shape. Eibar is really under a lot of pressure and they must win, unlike Rayo Vallecano who can play its favourite game without much tactics. In the first part of the season Eibar had surprised at the Vallecas and won by 3-2, while out of their four La Liga matches each team won twice. Begins: 03.04.2015 – 20:45 CET
Eibar

Little by little Eibar is getting closer to the position that was predicted for them at the beginning of season. In the first part of the season this team was a real hit and was firmly positioned in the upper part of the table, while at the beginning of the second part of the season they won two victories. Then began their decline and this team didn’t win since the beginning of January. They have played exactly ten matches in this period and only two were not defeats, while those two were draws. The negative series has begun with a draw and they drew in the last round with Granada away, which is a very good result considering that the opponent were a team who are positioned in the relegation zone.

They were mostly in a subordinate position but they managed to preserve the initial 0-0 till the end of match. However, draws will not leave them in La Liga and instead they have to start winning. This seems like a pretty good chance but they will not be complete because stopper Raul Navas and midfielder del Moral are injured. On the other hand Ekiza is back in the team after expiration of the suspension and he will surely cover the stopper position, while Piovaccari goes in the attack.

Probable lineups Eibar: J. Jimenez – Boveda, Ekiza, Anibarro, L. Castellano – Dani Garcia, Borja – Lara, Saul, Arruabarrena – Piovaccari
Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano is worry-free in the middle of the table although they cannot simply completely relax since the relegation zone is not too far, just ten points below. This of course doesn’t mean that Rayo should start playing tactics because this team don’t play like that for a long time and in fact play quite openly in every match to win. They still have only two draws from the first two rounds, which means that they didn’t draw for 26 rounds and it is the best indicator of their play style. With such game they tend to receive a lot of goals and average more than two per game when play away.

They are currently in a quite good shape and have won four times in the last six rounds and they lost the two remaining matches to Athletic and Barcelona away, ??where objectively couldn’t do much. It should be said that all four victories were won at home and that they didn’t win away for a long time. Coach Jemez has a lot of problems with the team because stopper Amaya and midfielder Trashorras cannot play because of yellow cards, while attackers Baptistao and Miku are injured, but the good news is that stopper Abdoulaye is back in the team.

Probable lineups Rayo Vallecano: C. Alvarez – Tito, Abdoulaye, Ze Castro, Nacho – Raul Baena, J. Sanchez – Kakuta, Bueno, Lica – Manucho
Eibar – Rayo Vallecano PICK

This match is very important for Eibar and they really must try to win, while Rayo Vallecano will certainly not just defend their goal, simply because it is not their style and on top of it they are completely worry-free. Therefore, contrary to many expectations, we forecast here a match with plenty of goals.

Pick: over 2.5 goals

Stake: 5/10

Odds: 2.15

England vs Lithuania

England vs. Lithuania / Qualifiers for EURO – After a few friendly, finally we have a few qualifying matches for EURO 2016, and we will start the analyse of the fifth round with one quite unequal duel in Group E, because the currently leading England meets the third Lithuania at London’s Wembley, which already at this stage of the competition has a large six points behind “Gordon Albion”. Let us add that this is their first mutual duel in history. Begins: 27.03.2015 – 20:45 CET
England

But even though they do not know each other enough, it is quite clear that the English have the role of big favourite in this match, especially while since they are in a series of six wins. Namely, coach Hodgson has after the debacle at last year’s World Cup further rejuvenated his team, which immediately led to a lot more aggressive and faster game, and then ultimately to better results. Thus, after the victory in the friendly match against Norway, they also celebrated as guests in Switzerland with 2-0 in the opening of qualifications, but then they achieved a maximum impact at home against San Marino and Slovenia, and on the side in Estonia.

Meanwhile they celebrated in the friendly match against Scotland, on their Celtic Park, which has only helped their self-confidence before the continuation of qualifications. Let us add that goalkeepers Forster and Foster, defender Shaw, midfielders Lallana, Wilshere and Oxlade-Chamberlain and strikes Sturridge and Rodriguez will all have to miss this duel with Lithuania because of injuries, while defender Chambers, midfielder Downing and strikers Lambert and Berahino were not even called to participate due to their poor form.

Probable lineups England: Hart – Clyne, Jones, Cahill, Gibbs – Henderson, Carrick, Milner – Sterling – Rooney, Welbeck
Lithuania

As for the team of Lithuania, they have used their favorable schedule in the first two qualifying rounds and celebrated with 2-0 in the away match against outsiders from San Marino, and after that in the neighboring derby against Estonia they also reached a domestic triumph of 1-0. However, already against their first serious opponent Slovenia they showed that they are still limited team, so they were defeated at home with 2-0 in the third round, while in the next match in Switzerland they suffered a defeat of even 4-0.

In this way the Lithuanians have already fallen to fourth place in the standings, but they still have the same number of points as the second Slovenia and third Switzerland. We should also add that they late last year did a good job in the friendly match against much better team of Ukraine, because as guests in Kiev they managed to play 0-0. However, now they themselves are aware that they will have a pretty tough job against the leading England and therefore coach Pankratkjevas has announced a distinctly defensive setup, however what certainly creates additional problems are the absences of the injured strikers Spalvis, Novikovas and Matulevicius and midfielder Zulpa.

Probable lineups Lithuania: Arlauskis – Freidgeimas, Kijanskas, Zaliukas, Andriuskevicius – Mikoliunas, Panka, Vicius, Vaitkunas – Kalonas – Cernych
England vs. Lithuania PICK

Of course that the English are big favourites in this game, especially since they are playing at home, but also the team of Lithuania has already in the last friendly match with Ukraine showed some progress and therefore we feel that they will not experience a disaster now at Wembley as they did in the previous qualifying match against Switzerland.

Pick: Asian Handicap +2.5 Lithuania

Stake: 5/10

Odds: 1.6

Isner – Anderson

Home favorite John Isner takes on South African Kevin Anderson in the third round at Indian Wells. Both guys had a bye in the first round and won their second round matches in straight sets.


Isner defeated Melzer 6-3 6-4 for a much needed breath of fresh air after having an awful season, highlighted by blowing USA’s Davis Cup tie against Great Britain last week by losing to James Ward. John`s form is really bad for some time now and it seems he can`t catch a break. He did play well against Melzer (especially on serve, 0 break points allowed) but not anything special, after all Melzer is more like old-boys material right now – even if I did expect Jurgen to cause Isner more problems due to the matchup between them. All in all, the American could gain some confidence from that win and also from the fact that Indian Wells is one of his favorite tournaments.

Kevin Anderson is playing the best tennis of his life right now, he`s having a really good year with a R16 showing at the Australian Open, final in Memphis and two other semifinals – after having a solid 2014 as well. He had a rather straightforward win in the second round against Delbonis, 7-5 6-4, holding serve for the entire match.


Isner leads the Head 2 Head 7-3 (7-4 if we take into account a semi-official match in Hopman Cup) and won the last 4 meetings. On hard the score is 6-4. The Head 2 Head would suggestst a matchup advantage for John, but I doubt that is the case. Both are big servers, and the Head 2 Head is more due to the fact that Isner is simply a slightly better player when in form, while Anderson started playing at a top level no earlier than.

The odds on Anderson are going up because of the Head 2 Head and I`m really tempted to bet on Kevin, but I will stick with a tip on a first set tiebreak. In the direct meetings so far there were 5 first set tiebreaks in 11 matches and the two played a total of 14 tiebreaks in 25 sets, which is a percentage of over 55%. Obviously both are big servers and not so good returners, especially Isner. There`s also the fact that each player held serve with authority in the previous round, not allowing any breaks, so that will give Isner and Anderson big confidence on serve early in the match.

I do think that Anderson should be the favorite, but all in all it looks like a relatively evenly matched clash and my tip will be a first set tiebreak to occur. Prediction: John Isner – Kevin Anderson 7-6 5-7 6-7.


Pick: First set tiebreak – Yes
Odds: 2.10