септембар 2015

Txt reversal

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четвртак, 17. септембар 2015.

Gabala – PAOK

PAOK Salonic will open their Europa League campaign with a trip to Azerbaijan, but it will surely not be easy against a Gabala side that proved itself big time in the qualifications and playoffs. The match will be played in Baku, so Gabala won`t have full home court advantage.

The Azeri side had a marvelous qualifying campaign, getting past Dinamo Tbilisi, Cucaricki, Apollon Limassol and finally Panathinaikos, in a giant upset. It was an excellent result by Gabala against the Greeks, as today`s hosts qualified after two draws – 0-0 at home and 2-2 away. Gabala is coming after a 1-2 defeat to Inter Baku in the Azeri league, but they are steal undefeated at home this season in 6 outings. This is a well organized team, with some individual talent as well and the result against Panata will surely give them confidence that they can be competitive in a group with PAOK, Dortmund and Krasnodar.

PAOK Salonic made a lot of moves this summer, losing some key players but also bringing in excellent replacements, most notably Dimitar Berbatov. The visitors got past Lokomotiva Zagreb, Spartak Trnava and Bronby in order to reach this stage, posting some impressive results (6-0 vs. Lokomotiva, 5-0 vs. Bronby) but also playing some poor matches, losing in Zagreb and barely qualifying over Trnava. While they won all home games, they failed to win any of the away games. PAOK was on a run of 3 consecutive matches without a win before finally getting a positive result over the weekend, 3-0 in Veria. It was their first road win of the season in all competitions and the first road win in the last 10 matches!

This seems to be the most accessible game for Gabala in Group C, given the fact that PAOK might be the weakest opponent in this group and especially because PAOK is a home team, looking much worse on the road. Expect Gabala to leave it their all on the pitch and they should be able to get at least a draw against a team that is still trying to find its chemistry after so many transfers. It`s peculiar how PAOK can get so much credit in an European road match, as they are not meeting a pub team, but a solid side and Azerbaijan is always a tough place to come and play. The fact that the match will be played in Baku is not giving PAOK such a big advantage.

The hosts proved themselves in this competition and have every reason to expect a good result. My tip is Qabala +0,5 handicap and an 8 unit stake seems justified for this bet. Prediction: Gabala – PAOK 1-0.

Pick: Qabala +0,5
Odds: 1.72